Eur J Sport Sci. 2014 Jan;14 Suppl 1:S178-82. doi: 10.1080/17461391.2012.671368. Epub 2012 Apr 23.

From early to adult sport success: Analysing athletes' progression in national squads.

Barreiros A, Côté J, Fonseca AM.

Abstract

Abstract Although some prospective studies have shown that many successful young athletes do not maintain the same level of success when they reach adulthood, there is still a lack of information regarding athletes who started their international involvement at early ages. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to investigate the international pathway of male and female athletes in different sports from the moment of their competitive debut, in order to determine how many international athletes at early ages competed or did not compete internationally as juniors and/or seniors. The sample included 395 athletes (soccer, volleyball, swimming and judo), born between 1974 and 1981, who could have competed in their national squads between 1988 and 2008. Results showed that only a third of international pre-junior athletes reappeared as senior athletes, confirming the difficulties of predicting late success based on early identification and selection.